Saturday, December 6, 2008

Cyclocross regression

Weber Fairgrounds1




It’s a beautiful, sunny December afternoon here in Salt Lake City.  I’m sitting here in bed with a clogged nose and gnarly cough instead of racing the final cyclocross race of the series at the Andy Ballard Equestrian Center.  Lately the weather’s been so nice, in fact, that I haven’t been wishing I was sliding through the woods on skinny skis instead of skinny tires during every race. 

Since I’m not racing today I figured I would do something I enjoy equally well.  You guessed it; I’m spending the afternoon doing regression analysis.  First I plotted my finishing place in each of the five cyclocross races I’ve done this season:
Place

As you can see, the data indicate that I have clearly improved over the course of the season, but they also indicate a leveling off of my progress, as is evident by the 12th place finish the data predict for me if I had shown up for race number 11 today.  Me and steve1

Rather than get discouraged by these data, or write them off as an indicator of my level of enthusiasm for cyclocross this year, I next plotted the number of riders I finished in front of in each of my first four races.  I deemed race number 10 to be an outlier because I had a mechanical during the race (i.e. my handlebars slipped downward every time I rode on the hoods, then slipped back upwards when I shifted my hands to the drops.  I stopped to fix them after two laps, and after several minutes spent frantically searching for someone to loan me a multi-tool, I managed to tighten them in the downward position, so that even when I was on the hoods I felt like was riding in an aerodynamic tuck.  This, of course, clearly explains why I was able to ride fast enough to catch two competitors before the end of the race and not finish last.):
Riders

I must admit I find the upward trend of these data much more encouraging.  And look at that coefficient of variation—a whopping 0.85!  That’s pretty exciting, but what troubles me about these data is that they predict I would have finished in front 10 riders in race number 11 today.  Do the math if you must, but can you believe that?  Ten riders!?! The data don’t lie.  If, like last week, only 14 riders showed up to race in the ‘A’ Category, I would have finished in fourth place. 

Finishing fourth in a cyclocross race requires commitment.  It requires discipline.  It requires training, skills, desire.   It requires knowing how to get back on my bike after every barrier without hopping around like a fool.  No way.  I’m not ready to finish in fourth place. 

Sheesh.  It’s a good thing I stayed home today. 



2 comments:

  1. Three seasons ago I raced beginner. Two seasons ago I raced sport. Last season I moved up to expert. In a mere 29.3 more seasons, I'll be the best mountain biker in the world!

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